Photovoltaic/photovoltaic equipment: embrace three new technologies-granular silicon, heterojunction, large size Aug 06, 2021

Granular silicon: The advantages are gradually showing, the industrialization process will accelerate, and it is expected to become a new generation of silicon material technology to help reduce photovoltaic costs

1) Demand side: Large-scale purchases of 10,000 tons indicate that granular silicon has been recognized by the market, marking the beginning of large-scale industrialization. Using granular silicon material in mass production of N-type ingots, the quality parameters are stable, and the crystal pulling cost is reduced.

2) Supply side: We expect China's granular silicon production capacity will reach 100,000 to 200,000 tons in 2022, and the release will accelerate in the future.


1) Photovoltaic heterojunction is essential to reduce the cost of photovoltaic kilowatt-hours, and to promote it on a large scale around the world to achieve "carbon neutrality". It is the "star of the future" of photovoltaics. In the future, it will replace PERC as the third-generation mainstream application technology for photovoltaic cells.

2) The industry will nurture a market value leader of 100 billion yuan: It is estimated that the HJT equipment market space is expected to exceed 40 billion yuan in 2025, with a 5-year CAGR of 80%. Under the assumption of 20% net interest rate and 25 times PE assumption, the market value of HJT equipment industry is 200 billion yuan. It is estimated that the market share of industry leaders is expected to exceed 50%, and the market value is expected to reach 100 billion in the future. HJT equipment "let a hundred flowers bloom" and coexist with multiple technical routes.

"Large size": "Reduce cost and increase efficiency", which brings a new round of iterative demand, and the equipment opens the era of large-size update iteration

Large size has the advantage of "reducing costs and increasing efficiency". We judge that large size (210/182) will become the mainstream market in 2021, and will occupy more than 90% of the market share in 2022. Most of the demand for new equipment in the market is basically implemented in accordance with the 210 downward compatibility standard, which will gradually replace the existing equipment. Manufacturers of crystal growth furnaces, slicers, cells, and component equipment will obviously benefit.

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